Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal Party is expected to win the high-stakes federal election and form the next government in Canada, according to projections by public broadcaster CBC News.
The Liberals are forecast to secure more seats in the 343-member Parliament than the opposition Conservatives. However, it remains unclear whether the party will clinch an outright majority, which would allow it to govern without needing support from other parties.
The counting trends signal a stunning comeback for the Liberals, who faced a likely defeat until US President Donald Trump’s annexation threats and trade war with Canada triggered a nationalist backlash. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre had hoped to make the election a referendum on former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whose popularity declined due to a runaway cost of living and immigrant influx.
However, Trump’s attacks reshaped the political landscape. Trudeau later stepped down, and Mark Carney — a former central banker — took over the Liberal leadership and the prime ministership. Trump’s comments — including suggestions that Canada should become the 51st US state — angered Canadian voters and shifted momentum toward the ruling party, putting it on course for a fourth consecutive term.
In Canadian federal elections, the House of Commons has 343 seats. A party needs 172 seats to secure a majority government.
EARLY TURNOUT HITS RECORD HIGH
Earlier, polling started across Canada, and the last ones are set to close at 10 PM EDT (7:30 PM IST). The race has tightened over the past few weeks, but the early trends shows that the Liberals remain narrowly ahead.
In Canada’s “first-past-the-post” electoral system, it’s not the sum of the votes that counts — it’s the winning of more districts. A record 7.3 million people had already voted in polls before election day, according to Elections Canada. There are 28.9 million eligible voters.
The incumbent prime minister, Mark Carney, has distanced himself from his predecessor, Justin Trudeau.
THE TRUMP FACTOR
Trump’s threat triggered an outpouring of patriotism that added to the strength of Carney, a political newcomer who once headed two G7 central banks. Trump made a comeback as a campaign factor last week, when he announced that he will impose a 25% tariff on cars made in Canada because the US does not want them. He said before that he may employ “economic force” to make Canada the 51st state.
In a social media post, Trump reiterated his call. “Good luck to the Great people of Canada,” he said.
“Elect the man who has the strength and wisdom to cut your taxes in half, increase your military power, for free, to the highest level in the World, have your Car, Steel, Aluminium, Lumber, Energy, and all other businesses, QUADRUPLE in size, WITH ZERO TARIFFS OR TAXES, if Canada becomes the cherished 51st. State of the United States of America. No more artificially drawn line from many years ago,” he added.