Trump’s Venezuela Oil Strategy Could Undermine Climate Goals

Days after US forces entered Venezuela and detained President Nicolás Maduro, Washington is signalling a renewed push to tap the country’s vast oil reserves.

President Donald Trump has openly backed direct participation by American energy companies, arguing that reviving oil production would also help Venezuela’s battered economy. Climate and energy analysts are unconvinced. While modern technology and stricter emissions controls could limit some damage, they warn that expanding Venezuelan oil production would be economically risky and environmentally costly.

Venezuela embodies a climate paradox. It holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves — more than 300 billion barrels — yet its output has collapsed, falling from about 2 million barrels per day in 2016 to under 1 million today.

The decline stems from years of US sanctions, prolonged underinvestment and decaying infrastructure. Much of Venezuela’s oil system — pipelines, storage tanks and refineries — is outdated and poorly maintained, leading to frequent leaks and spills that pollute rivers, lakes and surrounding land.

“Venezuela’s oil is considered ‘dirty’ not because of politics, but because of physics and infrastructure,” said Guy Prince, head of energy supply research at Carbon Tracker, speaking to CNN.

According to the International Energy Agency, methane emissions from Venezuela’s oil and gas operations are six times the global average — among the highest intensities worldwide. Most Venezuelan crude comes from the Orinoco Belt, where oil is exceptionally heavy and carbon-intensive. Extracting and refining it requires more energy than conventional crude, resulting in higher emissions and greater environmental damage.

Experts say that even with US involvement, the climate impact would be severe. Kevin Book, managing director at ClearView Energy Partners, told NPR that the challenge is as much economic as technical. “It’s not just a geologic or engineering problem — it’s a math problem,” he said, noting that aggressive drilling strategies have often failed financially.

Patrick King, head of emissions research at Rystad Energy, acknowledged that US oil majors have experience cutting emissions in some global operations. But he warned there are clear limits to how much emissions can be reduced when dealing with heavy crude and aging infrastructure. Rystad Energy estimates that maintaining Venezuela’s current low level of production would require more than $53 billion over the next 15 years just to repair wells, pipelines and equipment.

While about 70 per cent of US refining capacity is designed to process heavy crude — potentially making Venezuelan oil commercially attractive — long-term demand remains uncertain. As electric vehicles and clean energy technologies expand, global oil consumption could plateau or decline.

Diego Rivera Rivota, senior research associate at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, warned that expanding production would almost certainly drive emissions higher. “Most likely, carbon emissions would increase very significantly,” he said.

Analysts stress that US companies could make Venezuelan oil marginally less polluting, but never clean. Beyond emissions, they warn that a renewed focus on fossil fuel extraction risks slowing the global transition to clean energy by reinforcing old resource-driven geopolitics.

With an interim government now in place, Trump has made clear that cooperation is expected. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Washington plans to restart oil flows quickly. “We’re going to get that crude moving again and sell it,” Wright said. “First the stored oil, and then production going forward.”