India’s imports from Russia plunge 40% in January amid crude pullback
India’s merchandise imports from Russia fell sharply by 40.5% year-on-year in January 2026, primarily due to reduced crude oil purchases. The decline comes against the backdrop of shifting trade dynamics following an interim trade understanding between India and the United States.
According to trade data cited by Hindustan Times, India imported goods worth $2.86 billion from Russia in January, down from $4.81 billion in the same month last year. Petroleum crude, which typically makes up nearly 80% of India’s total imports from Moscow, was the main contributor to the contraction.
Oil flows moderate after multi-year surge
Between 2023 and 2025, India significantly increased purchases of discounted Russian crude following Western sanctions on Moscow. Russia’s share in India’s oil import basket climbed from 21.6% in 2022–23 to 35.9% in 2023–24 and remained elevated at 35.8% in 2024–25.
January’s data, however, signals a slowdown in procurement by Indian refiners. While Russian barrels continue to feature in India’s sourcing mix, analysts suggest buying decisions are being recalibrated based on pricing trends, freight costs, and evolving geopolitical considerations. Because crude dominates bilateral trade, even moderate adjustments in volumes can sharply impact headline import figures.
US trade framework reshapes flows
The decline also follows an interim trade framework between India and the US, under which Washington lowered tariffs on Indian goods to around 18%, reversing steeper duties imposed in 2025. The US additionally withdrew a 25% tariff that had targeted Indian exports over continued Russian oil purchases.
In return, India is expected to scale up imports of US-origin energy, defence equipment, and technology over the coming years, with bilateral trade projected to reach roughly $500 billion. The arrangement also covers cooperation on non-tariff barriers and enhanced economic coordination.
Strategic balancing act
Earlier, the administration of Donald Trump had imposed tariffs of up to 50% on certain Indian exports, linking trade concessions to India’s oil imports from Russia. An executive order tied tariff relief to commitments around energy sourcing, with scope for reconsideration if import levels rebound.
The January figures underscore how energy trade, tariff negotiations, and geopolitical strategy remain deeply intertwined in shaping India’s import patterns.
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