Europe Shifts Focus to India, China Amid Drop in US Tourist Numbers

International travel to Europe is forecast to grow 6.2% this year, but the composition of visitors is beginning to shift, according to a new survey by the European Travel Commission.

After several years of robust post-pandemic growth driven largely by American travellers, early indicators suggest that demand from the United States is cooling. Economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions have tempered travel intentions, with an earlier ETC study showing fewer Americans planning European trips in 2026 compared to 2025.

At the same time, Asia is emerging as a key growth engine. Chinese arrivals are projected to jump 28% year-on-year, while Indian visitor numbers are expected to rise 9%. By contrast, growth from the broader Americas region is estimated at just 4.2%.

Aviation data underscores the trend. Figures from Cirium show bookings from Europe to the US between early October and late January fell 14.2% compared with the previous year, while bookings from the US to Europe declined 7.3%.

Even with softer American demand, Europe’s tourism revenues remain resilient. Travel spending across the continent is projected to rise 9.7% in 2025, reflecting a shift toward higher-value experiences rather than volume alone.

Major carriers such as Lufthansa and Air France-KLM have reported stronger bookings in premium cabins, even as economy-class transatlantic travel shows signs of easing. Miguel Sanz, head of the European Travel Commission, said Europe remains well placed to adapt to evolving travel preferences. He noted that travellers are increasingly seeking flexibility and experience-driven journeys — trends that continue to favour European destinations.

The data suggests that while Europe may be losing some momentum among American tourists, rising demand from China and India — coupled with higher per-visitor spending — could help sustain the continent’s tourism growth trajectory.