‘Godzilla’ El Niño Intensifies, UN Warns World Nears Extreme Weather Danger Zone

The world is moving deeper into a period of extreme-weather risk as El Niño strengthens rapidly and is expected to become a very strong event later this year, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned.

The weather phenomenon is forecast to continue into early 2027, bringing major changes in rainfall and temperature patterns and increasing the risk of extreme heat, drought and flooding across different parts of the world.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres has issued a stark warning, saying the planet is entering an “extreme weather” danger zone as ocean temperatures continue to rise.

El Niño Showing Signs of Rapid Intensification

El Niño is driven by unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. Recent observations indicate that the warming has become exceptionally pronounced.

The Niño 3.4 index, a key measure of El Niño, averaged around 2°C above normal in July. Weekly readings later climbed to between 2.2°C and 2.6°C above average.

The warming is also occurring beneath the ocean surface. Temperatures in parts of the tropical Pacific were more than 8°C above normal during July and early August, creating a large reservoir of heat that could fuel further strengthening.

The WMO estimates there is an almost 100% chance that El Niño will persist through February 2027, with the event expected to peak towards the end of 2026.

Global Weather Patterns Under Pressure

A very strong El Niño can disrupt atmospheric circulation and shift rainfall and temperature patterns across large parts of the globe.

While some regions could experience prolonged dry spells, worsening wildfire and water-security risks, others may face intense rainfall and flooding. Much of the world’s land areas are also expected to experience above-normal temperatures in the months ahead.

India could face additional pressure on its southwest monsoon, agriculture and water supplies as El Niño strengthens. The phenomenon has historically been associated with weaker or more erratic monsoon rainfall.

The India Meteorological Department has warned that El Niño could strengthen further during the October-December period. India has already recorded a significant rainfall deficit in August, while September rainfall is expected to remain below normal.

However, the effects of El Niño vary from region to region and depend on geography, season and its interaction with other climate patterns, including conditions in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans.

Warmer Climate Could Worsen Impacts

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon, and there is currently no evidence that human-caused climate change is making such events more frequent or stronger.

However, rising temperatures in the atmosphere and oceans can amplify some of El Niño’s impacts, particularly extreme heat and intense rainfall.

The previous major El Niño, in 2023-24, contributed to exceptionally high global temperatures and coincided with 2024 being recorded as the warmest year on record.

WMO Urges Governments to Prepare

The WMO is working with national meteorological and hydrological services to strengthen forecasts, early-warning systems and preparedness measures.

The emphasis is on taking action before extreme weather strikes. Governments, farmers, health authorities, water managers and humanitarian agencies can use seasonal forecasts to prepare for changing risks.

With El Niño expected to intensify further before the end of 2026, the coming months could be crucial.

The warning from the UN and WMO is clear: as extreme-weather risks rise, early preparation and timely action will be critical to limiting their impact.