Brazil’s Working-Class Champion Lula Secures Historic Fourth Presidential Term

Lula Makes History With Fourth Term as Brazil President, Defying Right-Wing Surge

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has secured an unprecedented fourth term, delivering a dramatic political comeback that challenges the recent wave of right-wing electoral victories across Latin America. The country’s electoral court confirmed his victory over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro.

Lula, 80, remains one of the most influential figures in Brazilian politics and a prominent voice of the global left. His latest victory came despite a challenging campaign marked by concerns over living costs, corruption scandals involving his political camp and questions about his ability to connect with a changing workforce.

Flávio Bolsonaro, who finished ahead of Lula in the first round, had sought to build on his father’s far-right political movement. However, Lula managed to overcome the odds and secure another term, extending a political career that has spanned five decades.

The result represents another remarkable turnaround for Lula, who served as president from 2003 to 2011 before being imprisoned between 2018 and 2019 on corruption charges that were later overturned. He returned to power by defeating Jair Bolsonaro in the 2022 presidential election.

Left-wing federal lawmaker Erika Hilton, who was with Lula in São Paulo during the vote count, praised the president, describing him as a statesman and a giant.

Voter Turnout Helps Lula Secure Victory
Political analysts pointed to stronger-than-expected voter participation as a key factor behind Lula’s success. Leonardo Barreto, co-founder of consultancy Think Policy, said voters appeared to favour a familiar political path over the uncertainty associated with a change in leadership.

Throughout the campaign, Lula highlighted his government’s efforts to reduce poverty and inequality. His administration also pointed to improvements in employment and literacy, along with measures to reduce deforestation.

Lula warned that a Bolsonaro-led government could scale back welfare programmes, reverse social gains and compromise Brazil’s independence in international affairs. He also criticised US President Donald Trump’s support for the Bolsonaro political camp.

The outcome could complicate Washington’s efforts to strengthen ties with right-wing governments across Latin America that broadly support its positions on security and migration.

Former Lula foreign minister Celso Amorim said the Brazilian president could serve as a stabilising force in the region, providing a counterweight to the growing influence of conservative political movements.

Lula Adds Another Chapter to His Political Comeback
Lula’s latest victory marks a historic first in Brazil’s democratic era: he becomes the first candidate since the country returned to democracy in the 1980s to win the presidency after finishing second in the first round.

His campaign combined populist messaging with economic proposals focused on workers and lower-income households. In the final weeks, he announced a series of measures intended to ease financial pressures on ordinary Brazilians.

Among the proposals was free public transport nationwide on weekends, which would require formal submission to Congress. Lula also pledged a 15% increase in his flagship welfare programme, with the increase already being implemented, according to the report.

He additionally championed a constitutional amendment that became one of Brazil’s most significant labour reforms in decades and secured broad support in Congress.

However, the president’s ability to continue implementing his agenda will depend on his capacity to negotiate with a legislature that has shifted further to the right.

Conservative Congress Could Limit Lula’s Power
Despite his electoral victory, Lula faces a difficult legislative landscape. Brazil’s incoming Congress is the most conservative since the country’s return to democracy in the 1980s.

Jair Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party and its allies could control more than 280 seats in the lower house and up to 50 seats in the Senate, potentially giving conservative lawmakers comfortable majorities in both chambers.

Oliver Stuenkel, a professor of international relations at the Getulio Vargas Foundation in São Paulo, warned that Lula could struggle to exercise his authority effectively from the beginning of his new term.

The legislature’s composition could force the president to make greater concessions to political allies and opponents. It may also weaken his influence over Supreme Court nominations and increase the risk of confrontations over government policy and possible impeachment proceedings.

Economic Challenges Await Brazil’s President
Lula’s fourth term will begin amid concerns over economic growth, public finances and household debt.

The government projects Brazil’s economy will grow by just 2.3% next year. Public debt has exceeded 82% of gross domestic product, reaching its highest level since the pandemic, while elevated interest rates continue to weigh on the economic outlook.

Although critics have blamed government spending for the rising debt burden, interest payments have accounted for much of the increase.

Goldman Sachs expects only modest progress in controlling expenditure, as Lula remains committed to a state-led approach to economic growth.

Household debt is another major concern. During the campaign, Lula introduced a provisional ban on online betting and announced a new debt-relief programme to help families manage their financial obligations.

Meanwhile, conservative lawmakers are expected to push for business-oriented structural reforms, potentially including spending cuts. Such measures could trigger social tensions if they affect welfare programmes or other public support schemes.

Lula’s fourth term will therefore test his ability to balance social commitments, economic stability and a Congress dominated by conservative forces. His historic victory has strengthened his political legacy, but delivering on his promises could prove more difficult than winning the election.