Israel Election Exit Polls Indicate Deadlock, Deliver Setback to Netanyahu’s Coalition
Israel’s closely watched wartime election ended without a clear winner, with exit polls released on Tuesday showing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc locked in a tight contest with the opposition alliance led by Gadi Eisenkot. The projections indicated that neither camp had secured the 61 seats required for a majority in the 120-member Knesset, leaving the country facing another round of uncertain coalition negotiations.
Although the projections pointed to a setback for Netanyahu’s coalition, the lack of a decisive opposition victory could allow the veteran leader to remain in office in a caretaker capacity while political parties negotiate the formation of a new government.
Addressing cheering supporters in Tel Aviv, Eisenkot declared that voters had rejected Netanyahu’s continued leadership and argued that the prime minister should step aside. However, political analysts cautioned that the exit polls did not establish a clear winner and that the final outcome could change as votes were counted.
Exit Polls Show Closely Contested Battle
Israel’s major television networks offered slightly different projections. Kan 11 and Channel 13 showed the two main blocs running neck and neck, while Channel 12 gave Eisenkot’s opposition camp a narrow advantage. None of the projections indicated that either side had reached the 61-seat threshold needed to govern independently.
Turnout reached 77.7 per cent, according to Israel’s Central Elections Committee, marking the highest participation in more than two decades and approximately seven percentage points above the 2022 election.
Far-right religious parties led by Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich were projected to secure a combined 13 seats within Netanyahu’s bloc. Their support could prove important in determining whether the prime minister can assemble a governing coalition.
Arab parties outside the two principal camps could also emerge as decisive players. However, Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar party and a former military chief, has largely ruled out forming a government with them, potentially complicating his efforts to secure a parliamentary majority.
With Israel’s political system characterised by fragmented party representation, smaller groups could play a crucial role in coalition negotiations. Final results were expected to take several days.
Netanyahu Faces Strong Challenge From Eisenkot
The election marked the first national vote since the Hamas-led attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, and the subsequent wars involving Gaza, Lebanon and Iran.
Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, described the exit-poll projections as a major defeat for Netanyahu’s coalition but cautioned that Eisenkot had not secured an unambiguous victory.
Opposition leader Yair Lapid also declared that Netanyahu’s bloc had suffered a severe electoral setback, arguing that voters had delivered a clear message against the incumbent government.
Eisenkot, 66, emerged as Netanyahu’s strongest challenger by combining his military background with a centrist domestic political positioning. A former military chief, he entered politics four years ago and joined Netanyahu’s war cabinet following the October 2023 attack. He resigned from the emergency government eight months later, criticising the prime minister’s leadership.
Despite presenting himself as an alternative to Netanyahu and his far-right allies, Eisenkot maintains a hard-line approach to national security. He opposes Palestinian statehood and has argued that Hamas’s military wing must be destroyed or dismantled.
He has also described Israel’s military campaign as a failure because Hamas continues to exercise control in Gaza, where the conflict has killed more than 74,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza health authorities cited in the report.
Arab Parties Seek a Decisive Role
The release of the exit polls prompted celebrations at the headquarters of the Joint List, an alliance of several Arab parties, in Nazareth. The strong turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel raised hopes among its candidates that they could influence coalition negotiations and prevent Netanyahu’s bloc from returning to power.
“We refuse the occupation and racism, and we will remain here,” Joint List candidate Faten Gattas said during a speech at the alliance’s headquarters.
The potential influence of Arab parties adds another layer of uncertainty to the negotiations, particularly given Eisenkot’s reluctance to rely on their support to form a government.
Voters Deliver a Verdict on Wartime Leadership
Security and the consequences of the October 7 attack dominated the election campaign. Hamas-led militants killed around 1,200 people in Israel and took 251 hostages during the assault, according to Israeli figures. The attack was followed by devastating wars in Gaza and confrontations involving Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran.
Netanyahu faced criticism over the intelligence and security failures that allowed the attack to take place. He defended his record by arguing that military operations against senior figures in Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran had strengthened Israel’s security.
His right-wing coalition’s policies have generated significant domestic divisions and contributed to international criticism of Israel. Netanyahu nevertheless campaigned on his security credentials and his relationship with US President Donald Trump, who supported his approach to the conflict with Iran.
At 77, Netanyahu has served as prime minister for nearly 19 of the past 30 years and has repeatedly survived political crises. His opponents have displaced him only once since 2009, when a coalition of rival parties formed a government after four inconclusive elections in two years. Netanyahu returned to office 18 months later.
He also entered the latest election facing longstanding corruption charges, which he denies, alongside criticism over the security failures preceding the October 2023 attack.
While the exit polls suggest that voters have weakened Netanyahu’s political position, the absence of a clear majority leaves Israel’s next government uncertain. The final results and subsequent coalition negotiations will determine whether the veteran prime minister can retain power or whether Eisenkot’s opposition can assemble an alternative government.
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