India Sees 6.3–6.8% GDP Growth in FY26, Flags US Tariffs as Downside Risk

India’s Economy to Grow 6.3–6.8% in FY26, US Tariffs Seen as Limited Risk: CEA.

Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran on Friday said India’s economy is expected to expand 6.3–6.8 per cent in FY26, driven by strong domestic demand, despite the potential impact of steep US tariffs.

Commenting on first-quarter GDP growth of 7.8 per cent, Nageswaran said the 50 per cent US tariffs are likely to be temporary, with both countries in talks to remove the 25 per cent penal tariff and explore a bilateral trade deal.

“Despite the reciprocal tariffs, Q1 growth shows resilience. We are retaining FY26 growth projections at 6.3–6.8 per cent,” he said, adding that any downside is expected to be limited.

The Economic Survey had projected the same growth range earlier this year. Nageswaran noted that GST rate cuts and festive-season demand are expected to support domestic consumption in the coming quarters.