Markets Open Cautious: Trump’s Tariff Warning, RBI Decision Keep Investors on Edge

Sensex, Nifty Dip as Markets Eye RBI Decision, Trump’s Tariff Threat Looms.

Indian equity markets opened lower on Wednesday as investors weighed US President Donald Trump’s renewed tariff threats against India and awaited the outcome of the Reserve Bank of India’s key policy decision. At 9:40 AM, the BSE Sensex was down 65.70 points at 80,644.34, while the NSE Nifty50 fell 28.40 points to 24,620.

Market sentiment took a hit after Trump threatened higher tariffs on Indian pharmaceutical and semiconductor imports, branding India an “unfavourable” trade partner. The remarks, coupled with weak economic signals from the US—such as a disappointing ISM Services PMI and unexpected job losses—amplified global risk aversion.

“Markets are facing a triple threat today: Trump’s tariff stance, weakness on Wall Street, and uncertainty ahead of the RBI’s monetary policy meeting,” said Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP (Research), Mehta Equities. He noted that the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision, expected at 10 AM, is likely to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.5%, after June’s 50 basis-point cut.

“Inflation is cooling, but GDP growth is sluggish at 6.5%. A rate pause seems more likely than another cut,” Tapse added. He also flagged key Q1 results from companies like Bajaj Auto, Divi’s Labs, Raymond, PVR Inox, and Trent, while warning of technical weakness in stocks such as Aurobindo Pharma, Voltas, BSE, and Havells.

Dr V.K. Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, said Trump’s remarks may weigh heavier on market direction than the RBI’s policy outcome.

“India is unlikely to bow to unfair demands. But that also means some short-term strain—exports could decline, GDP growth for FY26 might dip to 6.2%, and earnings could take a hit,” he said. “Markets are priced for perfection, so a correction wouldn’t be unhealthy.”

He added that the central bank’s move may not provide any immediate relief, with geopolitics now the dominant overhang on sentiment.