Poll Roundup: DMK ahead in TN, Congress tipped in Kerala, NDA favoured in Assam; Bengal too close to call

After a gruelling, month-long election across four states and one Union Territory, a poll of exit polls points to a dominant performance by the Bharatiya Janata Party in Assam, a potential comeback.

For the Indian National Congress in Kerala, and a likely return of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam in Tamil Nadu—while West Bengal remains too close to call. An outlier from Axis My India has thrown up a surprise in Tamil Nadu, projecting a dramatic rise for actor-politician Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), with 98–120 seats in the 234-member Assembly.

West Bengal: Battle on a knife’s edge
West Bengal remains the biggest suspense. Multiple exit polls suggest the BJP could seriously challenge Mamata Banerjee’s All India Trinamool Congress, projecting 146–175 seats for the saffron party. At the same time, other pollsters predict a comfortable fourth straight win for the TMC, with estimates ranging between 177 and 205 seats.

The BJP, which surged from just three seats in 2016 to 77 in 2021, has gone all-out this time, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah leading an intense campaign focused on corruption, governance and welfare delivery. The party is also banking on electoral roll revisions to tilt the scales.

Assam: BJP poised for hat-trick
In Assam, exit polls are unanimous in predicting a third straight term for the BJP under Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, with projections of around 88 seats in the 126-member Assembly. The Congress, led by Gaurav Gogoi in the state, is expected to secure around 27 seats.

Tamil Nadu: DMK ahead, Vijay factor disrupts
In Tamil Nadu, M. K. Stalin’s DMK is projected to win about 130 seats, while the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam alliance may settle near 65. The emergence of TVK, however, has added a new dimension, with projections suggesting around 30 seats for the party, potentially denting both Dravidian majors.

Kerala: Congress-led UDF gains edge
Kerala is likely headed for a change, with the Congress-led UDF projected to win around 77 seats, ahead of the Left Front’s 55. If the trend holds, it would mark the end of a decade in power for Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan.

A win in Kerala would be a significant boost for the Congress after recent setbacks, reinforcing its position in the South.