Reliance Q2 Results Today: Retail, Jio, O2C Expected to Fuel Earnings Surge

Reliance Q2 Results Today: Retail, Jio, and O2C Poised to Drive Strong Earnings Growth.

Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) is set to announce its Q2 FY26 results today, with expectations of healthy earnings growth driven by refining margins and continued momentum in its consumer-facing businesses—Reliance Retail and Jio.

Analysts’ median estimates suggest net profit may rise 11% YoY to around Rs 18,450 crore, while consolidated EBITDA could increase 14% to Rs 44,400 crore, supported by gains across oil-to-chemicals (O2C), retail, and digital services segments.

O2C Segment Strength

Refining margins held firm during the quarter, boosted by strong diesel and jet fuel spreads and a weaker rupee, which improved export realizations. Axis Capital and UBS forecast O2C EBITDA growth of over 20% YoY, while J.P. Morgan expects a 26% increase due to better cracks and product spreads. HSBC also anticipates a strong quarter for O2C, citing favorable refining conditions and stable energy operations.

Retail and Jio Maintain Momentum

Both Reliance Retail and Jio are expected to sustain growth. UBS projects retail revenue growth of over 13% YoY, driven by grocery and fashion segments, while Axis Capital expects a 13% increase in EBITDA with steady margins. In the digital services segment, UBS and Nomura forecast 15–16% YoY EBITDA growth, supported by subscriber additions and moderate ARPU gains.

Upstream, New Energy, and Long-Term Focus

The upstream oil and gas business is expected to remain stable, contributing modestly to earnings. Analysts highlight investor focus on RIL’s “Powering AI” ecosystem, which includes data centre investments, renewable energy expansion, and partnerships with Meta, Google, and NVIDIA. Updates on these initiatives could act as long-term catalysts, even if near-term earnings impact is limited.

Analyst Consensus

Most brokerages expect a broad-based, steady Q2 performance. J.P. Morgan projects 14% YoY EBITDA growth and 12% profit growth, although higher depreciation and interest costs could limit profit flow-through. Firms including UBS, Axis Capital, Kotak, HSBC, and Morgan Stanley maintain ‘Buy’ or ‘Overweight’ ratings, with target prices ranging Rs 1,700–1,780.