Thai voters head to the polls on Sunday after the country cycled through three prime ministers in less than three years, with a fragmented three-way contest set to decide the leadership of the Southeast Asian nation for the next four years.
Nearly 53 million people in the country of about 71 million are eligible to vote — the first time in Thailand’s history that voters will simultaneously elect a full 500-member House of Representatives and weigh in on whether the country should draft a new constitution. The snap election was called in December by Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, Thailand’s third premier since the 2023 election, after he dissolved the House to head off an imminent no-confidence vote.
More than 5,000 candidates from 57 parties are contesting the polls. Of the 500 seats in the lower house, 400 will be filled through constituency races, while 100 will be allocated via party-list proportional representation. The new House will then choose the prime minister. “This election is a gamble on Thailand’s future,” said Lawan Sarovat, a 60-year-old Bangkok resident. “In the past decade, I’ve never seen the country move backward as much as it has.”
Thailand’s prolonged political uncertainty has been compounded by an economy growing at around 2 per cent for the past five years and lingering fallout from a border conflict with Cambodia last year that killed more than 100 people and caused losses estimated at $436 million. “We hoped the last election would bring real change, but it didn’t,” Sarovat said. “This time, people must make their voices heard.”
Main contenders
The race pits Anutin’s Bhumjaithai Party, backed by Thailand’s royalist conservative establishment, against the progressive, youth-driven People’s Party and Pheu Thai, a once-dominant force linked to former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who is currently jailed.
A January survey by the National Institute of Development Administration put People’s Party leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut in first place for prime minister with more than 29 per cent support, followed by Anutin at over 22 per cent. In party preference, the People’s Party led with 33.5 per cent of respondents, ahead of Bhumjaithai at 22.7 per cent and Pheu Thai at 16.9 per cent.
The People’s Party is the successor to Move Forward, which won the most seats in the 2023 election with backing from 14 million voters but was blocked from forming a government and later dissolved by the Constitutional Court over its proposal to amend Thailand’s strict royal insult laws.
“Elections in Thailand are not just about voting,” Senator Tewarit Maneechai said. “They are shaped by surrounding power structures.” Even parties that win popular support must secure acceptance from independent bodies created under the current constitution, including the Senate, the Constitutional Court and the National Anti-Corruption Commission — institutions critics say entrench the influence of the post-2014 coup establishment.
Under this system, elected governments can be removed at any time. Maneechai pointed to the removal of Pheu Thai’s Paetongtarn Shinawatra as prime minister in August 2025 following a Constitutional Court ruling, a move that fuelled concerns about the growing power of unelected agencies.
Constitutional referendum
Alongside the election, voters will decide whether Thailand should replace its military-backed 2017 constitution. The ballot poses a single question: whether there should be a new constitution. More than 17 million votes in favour would be required to give the outcome nationwide legitimacy.
A “Yes” vote would begin a multi-stage drafting process, requiring two additional referendums before any new charter could be adopted. “The referendum matters because even a winning party’s survival still depends on institutions empowered by the current constitution,” Maneechai said.
Change versus status quo
Many voters view the election as a choice between reform and entrenched power. “Thai politics is operating under rules controlled by an authoritarian camp,” said Jamza Jongkham, a 27-year-old voter. “What happened to Move Forward was fundamentally unfair.”
Millennials and Generation Z together account for about 46.5 per cent of eligible voters, a bloc that has largely rallied behind reformist parties. Political scientist Puangthong Pawakapan of Chulalongkorn University said the vote is unlikely to produce a decisive break, but will highlight an intensifying struggle between voters and established elites.
“This election has divided the country into two clear camps — those demanding change and those defending the status quo,” she said. “The public increasingly recognises that Thailand’s political and economic problems stem from an old power structure that is extremely difficult to dismantle.”
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