Venezuela–US Standoff Sparks Oil Worries, India’s Exposure Limited

Trump’s Venezuela Moves Shake Global Markets, But India Remains Largely Unaffected

US President Donald Trump has rattled global markets after ordering airstrikes on Venezuela and detaining President Nicolás Maduro over alleged narco-terrorism and drug trafficking ties. With Venezuela holding the world’s largest proven oil reserves, concerns over potential oil supply disruptions have intensified.

However, experts say India’s economic exposure is minimal. The Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) noted that India’s trade with Venezuela has sharply declined due to US sanctions. “India faces negligible impact, as crude imports from Venezuela dropped 81.3 per cent in FY2025 and overall bilateral trade remains marginal,” GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava told PTI.

India–Venezuela Trade Has Shrunk

India was once a major buyer of Venezuelan crude, importing over 400,000 barrels per day at its peak in the 2000s and 2010s. The relationship weakened significantly after US sanctions in 2019, prompting India to cut imports and scale back commercial engagement.

In FY2025, India’s total imports from Venezuela were $364.5 million, of which $255.3 million was crude oil—a sharp fall from $1.4 billion in FY2024. Exports stood at $95.3 million, including pharmaceuticals worth $41.4 million. “Given low trade volumes, sanctions, and distance, the current unrest in Venezuela is unlikely to affect India’s economy or energy security,” Srivastava said.

Venezuela’s Oil Potential Could Still Benefit India

Venezuela holds roughly 18 per cent of global oil reserves, more than Saudi Arabia (16 per cent), Russia (5–6 per cent), and the US (4 per cent). Analysts suggest that a US-led intervention or restructuring of the country’s oil sector could present opportunities for India.

ONGC Videsh Ltd (OVL) owns a 40 per cent stake in the San Cristobal oilfield in eastern Venezuela, where production has fallen to 5,000–10,000 barrels per day due to sanctions restricting technology, equipment, and services. Dividend payments owed to OVL, totaling over $536 million up to 2014, remain withheld, with similar amounts pending for later years.

If sanctions are eased, OVL could redeploy rigs from India’s Gujarat oilfields to San Cristobal, potentially boosting output to 80,000–1,00,000 barrels per day and unlocking nearly $1 billion in long-pending dues.