Flight Disruptions Loom as Jet Fuel Shortage Deepens Amid Middle East War

Passenger flights around the world could face widespread disruptions within the next two months as a global shortage of aviation fuel intensifies due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, industry experts have warned.

Asia is expected to be hit first, followed by Europe—both regions heavily dependent on oil supplies from the Gulf. Energy economist Claudio Galimberti cautioned that the situation could become “systemic” within weeks, potentially leading to significant flight cuts across Europe as early as May and June. Some cancellations linked to fuel shortages have already begun, he noted.

The crisis is being exacerbated by supply bottlenecks around the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil shipments. Industry bodies have warned that unless tanker traffic resumes soon, fuel shortages could worsen rapidly.

Lufthansa has already taken drastic steps, announcing the closure of its regional subsidiary amid rising fuel costs and labor disruptions. The airline confirmed that 27 aircraft from its CityLine unit will be permanently withdrawn from operations.

According to Airports Council International Europe, jet fuel shortages in Europe could begin as early as May. Meanwhile, International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol warned that Europe may have only about six weeks of jet fuel reserves left, raising the likelihood of imminent flight cancellations.

Birol described the situation as potentially the “largest energy crisis” ever faced, stressing that no country would be immune to its impact.

Experts say the disruption will not be uniform. Larger hub airports may be better equipped to manage shortages, while smaller inland airports are expected to face greater challenges. Rather than a complete shutdown, analysts predict partial cancellations across airlines and routes as carriers struggle to manage limited fuel supplies.