Tamil Nadu Bypolls: Vijay’s TVK Eyes Majority as 10 AIADMK MLAs Come Into Focus

Tamil Nadu Bypolls: 10 AIADMK MLAs Could Push Vijay’s TVK to the Brink of an Absolute Majority

Tamil Nadu could be headed for another round of political realignment, with reports indicating that around 10 AIADMK MLAs are preparing to resign from the Assembly and join Chief Minister Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK).

According to The Indian Express, the legislators have reportedly been promised TVK nominations for the by-elections expected to be announced in August. If the plan unfolds as anticipated, it could leave Vijay’s party just one seat short of securing an absolute majority on its own in the 234-member Assembly.

• The Numbers Explained
• The halfway mark in the Tamil Nadu Assembly is 118 seats.

In the 2026 Assembly elections, TVK won 108 seats, emerging as the single-largest party but falling 10 seats short of a majority. After Vijay vacated one of the two constituencies he had won, the party’s strength dropped to 107 MLAs.

The government was formed with the support of the Congress (5 MLAs), while the CPI, CPI(M), VCK and IUML extended outside support, giving the ruling alliance an effective strength of 120.

Since taking office, however, TVK has reportedly focused on achieving a majority independently rather than relying on coalition partners.

How the Bypolls Could Change the Equation

AIADMK entered the Assembly with 47 MLAs, but a series of defections has already reduced its effective strength to 41.

If another 10 MLAs resign, AIADMK’s tally would fall to 31. Should those legislators contest the by-elections on TVK tickets and retain their seats, TVK’s strength would rise from 107 to 117—just one MLA short of the majority mark.

At that stage, a single additional defection or bypoll victory would be enough for TVK to secure a standalone majority.

• AIADMK’s Crisis Deepens
• The cracks within AIADMK emerged soon after the 2026 election.

During the trust vote, 25 of the party’s 47 MLAs reportedly broke ranks and voted in favour of the Vijay government, exposing a growing divide within the opposition.

The rebellion was led by senior leaders SP Velumani and CVe Shanmugam, who openly questioned the leadership of AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K. Palaniswami (EPS) after the party’s disappointing electoral performance.

The split soon widened beyond the Assembly. Several MLAs resigned before joining TVK, while former ministers C. Vijayabaskar and M.R. Vijayabhaskar, along with other senior leaders, also switched allegiance to the ruling party.

EPS’s Damage-Control Efforts

In response to the growing rebellion, EPS announced a series of organisational appointments in an effort to accommodate disgruntled leaders and restore unity within the party.

However, reports suggest many rebel legislators rejected the proposed roles, indicating that the leadership’s attempts to contain the crisis have had limited success. The continued exodus has also fuelled concerns among party workers about AIADMK’s shrinking influence in the state.

What’s at Stake

While the Vijay government currently enjoys a comfortable majority with the support of its allies, the reported strategy appears aimed at strengthening TVK’s position independently.

If the anticipated resignations and subsequent bypoll victories materialise, TVK would stand on the verge of an absolute majority, significantly reducing its dependence on alliance partners. For AIADMK, meanwhile, another wave of defections would further weaken the party and raise fresh questions over the future of Tamil Nadu’s principal opposition.