Michael box office prediction: Michael Jackson biopic eyes record $150M debut, set to surpass Bohemian Rhapsody and Elvis

The biopic Michael, based on the life of Michael Jackson, is set to hit theatres this Friday and is already generating strong box office buzz despite mixed early reviews.

Strong box office expectations

Industry trackers predict the film could earn $65–70 million in its opening weekend in North America—potentially setting a new benchmark for musical biopics. If achieved, it would surpass the opening figures of Bohemian Rhapsody ($51 million) and Straight Outta Compton ($62 million).

Globally, the film is expected to perform even better, with estimates placing its worldwide opening between $140–150 million. That would exceed the current record held by Bohemian Rhapsody, which debuted with $121 million worldwide. Other recent biopics like Elvis and The Complete Unknown failed to cross the $100 million mark in their opening weekends.

Reviews vs hype

Despite the strong projections, the film has received lukewarm early reviews, holding a low approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes. While this could impact long-term performance through word of mouth, advance bookings suggest audience interest remains high.

Bohemian Rhapsody, starring Rami Malek, remains the highest-grossing musical biopic of all time with $910 million globally. Trade analysts believe Michael could challenge that figure—and potentially even aim for the $1 billion milestone—if audience reception improves.

About the film

Directed by Antoine Fuqua and written by John Logan, the film stars Jaafar Jackson—Michael Jackson’s nephew—in the lead role. The cast also includes Nia Long, Laura Harrier, Miles Teller, and Colman Domingo.

The movie traces Jackson’s journey from his early days in Gary, Indiana, with the Jackson 5 to his rise as a global superstar, highlighting iconic milestones like Off the Wall and Thriller. Featuring original tracks and recreated performances, Michael releases in theatres on April 24.