Stock Market Today: Sensex, Nifty Decline At Open As Iran Conflict, Oil Prices Weigh

Stock Market Today: Sensex, Nifty Fall As Oil Prices, Iran Conflict Keep Investors Cautious

Indian benchmark indices opened lower on Friday, August 14, as investors remained wary of geopolitical tensions, elevated crude prices and mixed global cues. The market continued to trade within a narrow range, with investors awaiting a stronger trigger for a decisive move.

At around 9:16 am, the Sensex stood at 77,764.09, down 315.87 points, or 0.40%, from its previous close of 78,079.96. The Nifty was lower by 0.30% at 24,322.05.

Broader markets showed greater resilience. The Nifty Midcap 100 edged higher, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 gained 0.16%. The Nifty Smallcap 250 rose 0.21% and the Nifty Microcap 250 advanced 0.34%, pointing to continued buying interest beyond the frontline indices.

Sensex, Nifty Today: Market Stuck In A Narrow Range

V K Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Investments, expects the market to remain range-bound in the near term.

He said the Nifty has been moving between 23,800 and 24,400, with neither a strong breakout above the upper end nor a decisive breakdown below the lower end.

The market had appeared positioned for a move above 24,400, but the rise in crude prices following the failure of an expected US-Iran deal disrupted that momentum.

Brent crude has since eased below $87 a barrel, offering some relief to Indian equities. However, uncertainty surrounding foreign portfolio investor flows continues to weigh on sentiment.

Vijayakumar noted that FPI selling has moderated and foreign investors had recently turned buyers, but a sustained trend in their activity is yet to emerge.

He also pointed to stronger activity in the mid-cap and small-cap segments and said this trend could persist. Select private-sector banks, he added, may offer value opportunities for long-term investors.

• Sectoral Trends: Metals, Auto Lead Declines
• Most sectoral indices traded lower in early deals.

The Nifty Metal index was among the biggest losers, declining 1.02%. Nifty Auto fell 0.61%, while Nifty Cement slipped 0.55%.

Nifty FMCG declined 0.33%, Nifty Oil & Gas dropped 0.31% and Nifty Healthcare fell 0.28%. Nifty Private Bank and Nifty Financial Services also remained under pressure.

Some segments bucked the trend. Nifty Consumer Durables rose 0.50%, while Nifty Media gained 0.46% and Nifty Realty climbed 0.33%.

Global Markets: Asian Shares Trade Higher

Asian equities moved higher on Friday and were on track for their best weekly performance in nearly two months.

Investors drew support from relatively benign US inflation data, which reduced expectations of an immediate Federal Reserve rate hike.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gained 0.28% and was heading for a weekly rise of around 2.7%, its strongest performance since mid-June.

Japan’s Nikkei advanced 1.5% and was headed for a weekly gain of more than 5%.

However, the positive mood remained vulnerable to developments in the Middle East. Investors have largely looked past the lack of progress towards ending the Iran conflict, instead focusing on artificial intelligence-related growth and expectations of changes in global monetary policy.

Crude Oil Prices Remain A Key Risk

Brent crude futures were around $87.03 a barrel on Friday after falling on Thursday, but remained on course for a weekly gain of roughly 4%.

Oil prices have been volatile amid escalating tensions between the US and Iran. Washington has also threatened to intensify economic pressure on Tehran, including measures involving a naval blockade.

Higher crude prices are particularly significant for India because of its heavy dependence on imported oil. A prolonged increase in crude prices could put pressure on inflation, the trade deficit and the rupee, while raising costs for businesses across several sectors.

US Inflation, Fed Policy In Focus

US inflation data released during the week indicated that price pressures remained relatively contained, reducing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike at its next meeting.

Data from the CME FedWatch tool showed traders pricing in a 35% probability of a rate hike next month, down from 55% a week earlier.

The shifting expectations have supported US Treasuries and improved global risk sentiment. However, geopolitical uncertainty and crude oil movements remain key risks for investors.

Nifty Outlook: 23,800-24,400 Range Crucial

For domestic equities, the immediate focus remains on the Nifty’s 23,800-24,400 range.

A sustained move above 24,400 could strengthen expectations of a breakout, while a decisive fall below 23,800 could signal a deeper correction.

Until either level is breached convincingly, the market may remain directionless.

Investors are likely to monitor crude prices, foreign institutional flows, developments in the Iran conflict and global interest-rate expectations.

With mid- and small-cap stocks continuing to show relative strength, stock-specific opportunities could remain active even as the Sensex and Nifty struggle to establish a clear trend.