AfD Scores Historic Election Victory in Germany, But Majority Remains Out of Reach

Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has scored its biggest electoral breakthrough yet in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, finishing well ahead of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s conservatives but falling short of the majority needed to form a government on its own.

The AfD was projected to win around 44% of the vote, nearly doubling its 2021 performance of 23.7%. Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) was a distant second at about 18%, according to Reuters.

With 39 of the state parliament’s 83 seats, the AfD remained three seats short of the 42 needed for an outright majority. Its path to power is therefore unclear. The party has ruled out a coalition, while Germany’s established parties continue to follow the Brandmauer, or political firewall, against cooperation with the far right.

AfD lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund, 35, hailed the result as a landmark moment.

“We have made history in this state,” Siegmund told supporters, saying voters had made clear that “things cannot carry on like this”. AfD co-leader Alice Weidel described the result as a “clear government mandate”. Siegmund, who previously belonged to the centre-right CDU before joining the AfD, said the party was prepared to engage with political forces seeking change. He also suggested that another election could be held if a government cannot be formed, predicting that the AfD could potentially secure 50%-55% in a fresh vote.

AFD’S CONTROVERSIAL RECORD

Immigration and domestic security were key themes in the AfD’s campaign. The party advocates “remigration”, a term critics associate with large-scale deportations. The AfD says its policy focuses on deporting criminals and people who are in Germany illegally.

The party has repeatedly faced controversy over its positions on immigration, the European Union and Germany’s Nazi history. In Saxony-Anhalt, AfD politicians have criticised the Bauhaus school in Dessau, calling it a “dead-end of modernism”. Critics have accused the party of employing rhetoric that echoes Germany’s far-right past.

The party’s Thuringia leader Björn Höcke has also drawn widespread criticism. In 2017, he described Berlin’s Holocaust memorial as a “monument of shame” and called for Germany to move away from what he termed its culture of remembrance. A German court later ruled that calling Höcke a “fascist” was not defamatory.

MERZ’S CDU TAKES HEAVY BLOW

The election marks a dramatic setback for the CDU, which has governed Saxony-Anhalt since 2002. Its projected vote share has fallen by more than half from the previous election. State CDU leader Sven Schulze conceded defeat but maintained that his party would not cooperate with the AfD.

CDU General Secretary Franziska Hoppermann called the outcome a defeat for the party and a setback for those who have governed the state since the end of communist rule. The result could also increase pressure on Merz, whose popularity in Saxony-Anhalt has been weak. A recent poll found only 9% of voters satisfied with his political performance. Siegmund even credited the chancellor with helping the AfD during the campaign.

AFD STILL SHORT OF POWER

The AfD’s strong showing does not automatically translate into government. The entry of the Sahra Wagenknecht-led BSW into the state parliament further complicates the numbers. Die Linke was projected to win around 9.3%, followed by the Greens at 8.7% and the Social Democrats at 8.4%. The BSW also appeared to clear the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament.

The party’s presence reduces the AfD’s chances of reaching a parliamentary majority, although BSW has shown it can cooperate with the AfD on individual issues. The election was closely watched because no far-right party has governed a German state since World War II. Control of Saxony-Anhalt would give the AfD influence over key areas including policing, education and culture.

Turnout reached roughly 76.5%-76.7%, with about 1.7 million people eligible to vote in the state, which has a population of around 2.1 million. The AfD’s strongest support remains concentrated in eastern Germany. It also won the most seats in neighbouring Thuringia in 2024 but could not form a government.

INTERNATIONAL REACTION

The AfD’s breakthrough triggered reactions across Europe and beyond.

US President Donald Trump shared German election projections on Truth Social, while Russian presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev welcomed the AfD’s historic performance. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk condemned the result, saying that “in Poland only idiots and traitors can rejoice at the triumph of the AfD”.

The result also alarmed Jewish community leaders. Charlotte Knobloch, a Holocaust survivor and longtime leader of Munich and Bavaria’s Jewish community, said the outcome frightened her.

“On days like this I find it hard to recognise my homeland any more,” the 93-year-old said, urging mainstream parties not to stand by as the country moves further to the right.