Exit polls: Tight race in West Bengal, BJP set to sweep Assam; United Democratic Front eyes comeback in Kerala, DMK steady in Tamil Nadu

The Bharatiya Janata Party is projected to make major gains in the 2026 assembly elections, with exit polls on Wednesday predicting a potential breakthrough in West Bengal and a third straight term in Assam. Meanwhile, the Congress-led United Democratic Front is forecast to return to power in Kerala, while the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam could retain Tamil Nadu despite anti-incumbency.

What exit polls suggest

In West Bengal, the most closely watched contest, most exit polls predict a narrow majority for the BJP in the 294-member assembly, potentially unseating the All India Trinamool Congress. However, some agencies withheld projections, and at least one poll suggested a strong comeback for the ruling party.

Tamil Nadu appears set for a tighter race. Most polls indicate a slim win for the DMK-led alliance, though one survey by AxisMyIndia suggests actor-turned-politician Vijay and his party could emerge as a major disruptor in what may become a rare three-way contest, amid the decline of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam.

In Puducherry, exit polls uniformly predict a win for the National Democratic Alliance.

Kerala and Assam outlook

Exit polls in Kerala are unanimous in predicting a return of the UDF after a decade out of power, dealing a blow to Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, who had aimed for a rare third consecutive term.

In Assam, all projections point to a decisive victory for Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, with the BJP-led alliance expected to secure a commanding majority in the 126-member assembly.

A note of caution

Exit polls have a mixed track record and have often misjudged outcomes in the past, including the 2021 West Bengal election and the 2024 general election. Their reliability can be limited in states with complex social and political dynamics.

Stakes and significance

These elections are a crucial test for regional heavyweights such as Mamata Banerjee, M. K. Stalin and Vijayan. For the BJP, they represent an opportunity to expand into regions where it has historically struggled, particularly in southern and eastern India.

Votes will be counted on Monday, and the results are expected to have wide political implications, shaping momentum ahead of upcoming state elections and influencing the broader national landscape under Prime Minister Narendra Modi.